The euro crisis should not mean the end of enlargement

European Union (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

By Dimitar Bechev, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), September 20, 2012

Wrecked by the euro crisis and a loss of the confidence that helped it expand to the current 27 members, the European Union might be expected to shrink rather than grow in the coming few years. Without an effective solution to the euro crisis, the odds are that states might exit the common currency, if not the EU as a whole, and further expansion seems a long way down the list of priorities.

However enlargement is far from over, with Croatia due to join next year and other countries in the Western Balkans still working towards accession. And although the challenges are considerable, further expansion is not just in these countries’ interests but in the interests of the EU itself… (more) http://ow.ly/2shR67

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The future of Europe: It’s getting serious

Graphic “When Greece falls” presented by Dutch government on 21 June 2011, speaking of European sovereign debt crisis (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

By Ulrike Guérot, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), September 19, 2012:

The third year of the euro crisis might be the most important one yet – and with Germany heading for elections next September things are getting serious. In year one of the crisis (2010), Germany was lost and without a strategy, lurching through the events more than being in control. In year two of the crisis (2011) we observed a subtle U-turn und more decisive actions to safe the euro. But the German strategy was not the ‘big bazooka’, but a step-by-step pragmatic approach which certainly disappointed the Anglo-Saxon world. The strategy may be incomplete and flawed especially with respect to the pro-cyclical and painful effects of austerity policy in the South: but it is also true that we see the first signs of success… (more) http://ow.ly/1mwJBn

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Will Europe remain ‘Western’?

European Geostrategy: Will Europe remain ‘Western’? – Does the financial crisis in Europe represent a deeper geopolitical crisis? If so, what is the natur http://ow.ly/1mmsUg

Brazil-EU Relations: Beyond the Eurozone Crisis

Brazil (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

By Marcus Vinícius de Freitas, German Marshall Fund of the United States, September 4, 2012

The debate in Brazil on the future of Europe is still superficial, but has a particular concern for the impact the crisis will have on its growth rate. There have been adjustments in the expansion plans of Brazilian companies that were already operating in Europe before the crisis began, and many other Brazilian multinational corporations have gone bargain hunting in Europe. Europe is still not considered as friendly place for business as the United States, Japan, or even China. This has diverted Brazilian investments and companies to other regions where regulations are less burdensome… (more)  http://ow.ly/1mhanw

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Restoring Europe’s competitiveness

European Union (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

By Nikolaus van der Pas and John Wyles, Friends of Europe, August 24, 2012

The sovereign debt crisis is casting the European Union’s competitiveness problems in a very different light from a dozen years ago. Strengthening Europe’s ability to compete in the globalised economy has been a core EU objective since the Lisbon Declaration of 2000. But despite long seasons of discussion about priorities and numerous criticisms of the slow progress towards the 2010 goal of “the world’s most efficient and competitive knowledge-based economy in the world”, a comprehensive view of the challenge has been lacking. There was a general reluctance to relate lack of achievement to inadequate governance at the EU level and, until the financial crisis struck in 2008, a failure to focus on the growing divergence of competitiveness between Union member states…. (more) http://ow.ly/1m738n

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Brookings: The Euro Crisis Faces Three Possible Scenarios

Various Euro bills. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

By Douglas J. Elliott, Brookings, August 9, 2012

Anyone who tells you that they know how the euro crisis is going to be resolved is either lying to you or to themselves. The situation is so complex that several quite different paths are possible. In this type of situation, smart analysts use scenario analysis and strive to put probabilities on the different outcomes, without making the mistake of thinking they can predict the future with accuracy. Events can change perceptions of the probabilities quickly and significantly, which is why we observed so much market volatility surrounding recent statements by the head of the European Central Bank… (more)  http://ow.ly/1lUayA

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Carnegie Inst: The Big West Solution

Evolution of World Trade, 1991-2010 in 2000 USD. 2000=100. Source: World Trade Monitor, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Shimelse Ali, Uri Dadush, Zaahira Wyne, Carnegie Institute, August 6, 2012

Three years after the Great Recession officially ended, the United States is still struggling with high unemployment and a faltering recovery. But for the troubled economies across the Atlantic, where there is now open talk of the potential collapse of Europe‘s shared currency, the United States looks like a veritable economic success story — perhaps even a place to look for lessons on how to manage the crisis… http://ow.ly/1lRf8P